Last summer, Ukraine made a bold decision by launching an audacious offensive on Russian territory, the first incursion into Russia since World War II. The operation in the Kursk region took the Russian government by surprise and provided a significant morale boost for the Ukrainians. However, after months of intense fighting, Russia managed to regain nearly all the lost territory.
As efforts to reach a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow intensify, Ukraine appears to be once again engaging in smaller-scale incursions into Russian territory. In recent days, the Ukrainian military has carried out a new cross-border operation in the Belgorod region, according to reports from Ukrainian officials, open-source intelligence analysts, and Russian military bloggers.
Although the scope and objectives of the offensive in Belgorod were not entirely clear, military analysts suggest that the aim might be to divert Russian forces from Kursk to ease pressure in that area. It is also speculated that Kyiv seeks to gain diplomatic leverage by capturing another portion of Russian territory.
Nevertheless, Moscow has shown little willingness to negotiate while Ukrainian troops remain on its soil. Furthermore, Kyiv’s new offensive carries significant risks, as Ukrainian forces remain deployed along an extensive front line.
Unlike the Kursk incursion, this operation appears to be more limited in scope, securing only a narrow strip of territory across the border, according to military analysts who have verified combat footage. The number of soldiers involved and the scale of Russia’s response have yet to be determined.
Ukraine has not publicly acknowledged the operation on Russian soil. However, three Ukrainian military and government officials confirmed anonymously that actions are ongoing in the Belgorod region, near the area captured in Kursk last summer.
For its part, Russia has not made any official comments on the incursion in Belgorod, and the Ministry of Defense has not responded to requests for information. The region’s governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, mentioned on Telegram that some areas were unsafe due to drone and artillery attacks but did not refer to the presence of Ukrainian soldiers in the area.
Andriy Kovalenko, a senior Ukrainian government official specializing in Russian disinformation operations, declined to confirm the cross-border incursion but stated that fighting continues to neutralize Russian threats. According to him, this includes the destruction of enemy concentrations in Belgorod before they can be used against Ukraine.
Russian military bloggers, including analyst Valery Shiryaev, claim that Ukraine used armored vehicles to cross the border, prompting Russia to deploy Chechen battalions, regular army soldiers, and naval infantry.
Both Russia and Ukraine seek to consolidate their positions on the battlefield and in the diplomatic arena ahead of upcoming U.S.-mediated negotiations, whose date has yet to be determined. Recent talks between U.S. envoys, Russia, and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia have failed to advance toward a ceasefire, and commitments for a Black Sea truce have not yet halted attacks in the area.
According to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces crossed the border on March 18 and advanced toward the village of Demidovka, later moving into three other settlements near the border. Pasi Paroinen, an analyst at Finland’s Black Bird Group, confirmed that several geolocated videos showed Ukrainian troops in the Belgorod region and that they had secured strategic positions before Russian reinforcements arrived. Demidovka currently appears to be under Ukrainian control.
Videos verified by The New York Times show uniformed personnel in Demidovka, although it has not been confirmed whether they belong to the Ukrainian army.
Major General Viktor Nazarov, a former advisor to Ukraine’s General Staff, suggested that the operation aims to strengthen Kyiv’s negotiating position by capturing more Russian territory. However, similar expectations with the Kursk incursion have faded as Russia has regained control of the area.
Meanwhile, Mykhailo Samus, director of the Kyiv-based New Geopolitics Research Network, believes that this offensive is intended to block a potential Russian attack, divert enemy forces from other fronts, and strengthen Ukraine’s position in diplomatic talks. According to Samus, this operation demonstrates that “Ukraine is acting proactively and that its arguments must be taken into account.”
